In this math lesson, learners predict and simulate the likelihood of an event occurring. Using an inflatable globe of the earth, learners simulate where a UFO would impact with the surface of the Earth. Will the UFO hit land or water? Learners are encouraged to make predictions based on prior knowledge of the earth's geographical features. Learners toss the globe one hundred times and catch it with open hands. The position of their right index finger represents the landing location of a UFO. Learners then use the data that they've collected to evaluate and make predictions on where a UFO will impact the earth. This lesson can easily be integrated with a language arts unit on mysteries. Ideas for explorations of probability at centers are also included.